Using gradient Forest to predict climate response and adaptation in Cork oak.

Climate change is impacting locally adapted species such as the keystone tree species cork oak (Quercus suber L.). Quantifying the importance of environmental variables in explaining the species distribution can help build resilient populations in restoration projects and design forest management strategies. Using landscape genomics, we investigated the population structure and ecological adaptation of this tree species across the Mediterranean Basin. We applied genotyping by sequencing and derived 2,583 single nucleotide polymorphism markers genotyped from 81 individuals across 17 sites in the studied region. We implemented an approach based on the nearest neighbour haplotype 'coancestry' and uncovered a weak population structure along an east-west climatic gradient across the Mediterranean region. We identified genomic regions potentially involved in local adaptation and predicted differences in the genetic composition across the landscape under current and future climates. Variants associated with temperature and precipitation variables were detected, and we applied a nonlinear multivariate association method, gradient forest, to project these gene-environment relationships across space. The model allowed the identification of geographic areas within the western Mediterranean region most sensitive to climate change: south-western Iberia and northern Morocco. Our findings provide a preliminary assessment towards a potential management strategy for the conservation of cork oak in the Mediterranean Basin.

Mutations that adapt SARS-CoV-2 to mink or ferret do not increase fitness in the human airway.

SARS-CoV-2 has a broad mammalian species tropism infecting humans, cats, dogs, and farmed mink. Since the start of the 2019 pandemic, several reverse zoonotic outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 have occurred in mink, one of which reinfected humans and caused a cluster of infections in Denmark. Here we investigate the molecular basis of mink and ferret adaptation and demonstrate the spike mutations Y453F, F486L, and N501T all specifically adapt SARS-CoV-2 to use mustelid ACE2. Furthermore, we risk assess these mutations and conclude mink-adapted viruses are unlikely to pose an increased threat to humans, as Y453F attenuates the virus replication in human cells and all three mink adaptations have minimal antigenic impact. Finally, we show that certain SARS-CoV-2 variants emerging from circulation in humans may naturally have a greater propensity to infect mustelid hosts and therefore these species should continue to be surveyed for reverse zoonotic infections.

Natural and Recombinant SARS-CoV-2 Isolates Rapidly Evolve In Vitro to Higher Infectivity through More Efficient Binding to Heparan Sulfate and Reduced S1/S2 Cleavage.

One of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virulence factors is the ability to interact with high affinity to the ACE2 receptor, which mediates viral entry into cells. The results of our study demonstrate that within a few passages in cell culture, both the natural isolate of SARS-CoV-2 and the recombinant cDNA-derived variant acquire an additional ability to bind to heparan sulfate (HS). This promotes a primary attachment of viral particles to cells before their further interactions with the ACE2. Interaction with HS is acquired through multiple mechanisms. These include (i) accumulation of point mutations in the N-terminal domain (NTD) of the S protein, which increases the positive charge of the surface of this domain, (ii) insertions into the NTD of heterologous peptides containing positively charged amino acids, and (iii) mutation of the first amino acid downstream of the furin cleavage site. This last mutation affects S protein processing, transforms the unprocessed furin cleavage site into the heparin-binding peptide, and makes viruses less capable of syncytium formation. These viral adaptations result in higher affinity of viral particles to heparin, dramatic increase in plaque sizes, more efficient viral spread, higher infectious titers, and 2 orders of magnitude higher infectivity. The detected adaptations also suggest an active role of NTD in virus attachment and entry. As in the case of other RNA-positive (RNA+) viruses, evolution to HS binding may result in virus attenuation in vivo. IMPORTANCE The spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 is a major determinant of viral pathogenesis. It mediates binding to the ACE2 receptor and, later, fusion of viral envelope and cellular membranes. The results of our study demonstrate that SARS-CoV-2 rapidly evolves during propagation in cultured cells. Its spike protein acquires mutations in the NTD and in the P1' position of the furin cleavage site (FCS). The amino acid substitutions or insertions of short peptides in NTD are closely located on the protein surface and increase its positive charge. They strongly increase affinity of the virus to heparan sulfate, make it dramatically more infectious for the cultured cells, and decrease the genome equivalent to PFU (GE/PFU) ratio by orders of magnitude. The S686G mutation also transforms the FCS into the heparin-binding peptide. Thus, the evolved SARS-CoV-2 variants efficiently use glycosaminoglycans on the cell surface for primary attachment before the high-affinity interaction of the spikes with the ACE2 receptor.

Global Prevalence of Adaptive and Prolonged Infections' Mutations in the Receptor-Binding Domain of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein.

Several vaccines with varying efficacies have been developed and are currently administered globally to minimize the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Despite having an RNA-dependent RNA polymerase with a proofreading activity, new variants of SARS-CoV-2 are on the rise periodically. Some of the mutations in these variants, especially mutations on the spike protein, aid the virus in transmission, infectivity and host immune evasion. Further, these mutations also reduce the effectiveness of some of the current vaccines and monoclonal antibodies (mAbs). In the present study, using the available 984,769 SARS-CoV-2 nucleotide sequences on the NCBI database from the end of 2019 till 28 July 2021, we have estimated the global prevalence of so-called 'adaptive mutations' and 'mutations identified in the prolonged infections', in the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike (S) protein. Irrespective of the geographical region, in the case of the adaptive mutations, N501Y (48.38%) was found to be the dominant mutation followed by L452R (17.52%), T478K (14.31%), E484K (4.69%), S477N (3.29%), K417T (1.64%), N439K (0.7%) and S494P (0.7%). Other mutations were found to be less prevalent (less than 0.7%). Since the last two months, there has been a massive increase of L452R and T478K mutations (delta variant) in certain areas. In the case of prolonged infections' mutations (long-term SARS-CoV-2 infections), V483A (0.009%) was found to be dominant followed by Q493R (0.009%), while other mutations were found in less than 0.007% of the studied sequences. The data obtained in this study will aid in the development of better infection control policies, thereby curbing the spread of this virus.

Variable routes to genomic and host adaptation among coronaviruses.

Natural selection operating on the genomes of viral pathogens in different host species strongly contributes to adaptation facilitating host colonization. Here, we analyse, quantify and compare viral adaptation in genomic sequence data derived from seven zoonotic events in the Coronaviridae family among primary, intermediate and human hosts. Rates of nonsynonymous (dN ) and synonymous (dS ) changes on specific amino acid positions were quantified for each open reading frame (ORF). Purifying selection accounted for 77% of all sites under selection. Diversifying selection was most frequently observed in viruses infecting the primary hosts of each virus and predominantly occurred in the orf1ab genomic region. Within all four intermediate hosts, diversifying selection on the spike gene was observed either solitarily or in combination with orf1ab and other genes. Consistent with previous evidence, pervasive diversifying selection on coronavirus spike genes corroborates the role this protein plays in host cellular entry, adaptation to new hosts and evasion of host cellular immune responses. Structural modelling of spike proteins identified a significantly higher proportion of sites for SARS-CoV-2 under positive selection in close proximity to sites of glycosylation relative to the other coronaviruses. Among human coronaviruses, there was a significant inverse correlation between the number of sites under positive selection and the estimated years since the virus was introduced into the human population. Abundant diversifying selection observed in SARS-CoV-2 suggests the virus remains in the adaptive phase of the host switch, typical of recent host switches. A mechanistic understanding of where, when and how genomic adaptation occurs in coronaviruses following a host shift is crucial for vaccine design, public health responses and predicting future pandemics.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in domestic cats imposes a narrow bottleneck.

The evolutionary mechanisms by which SARS-CoV-2 viruses adapt to mammalian hosts and, potentially, undergo antigenic evolution depend on the ways genetic variation is generated and selected within and between individual hosts. Using domestic cats as a model, we show that SARS-CoV-2 consensus sequences remain largely unchanged over time within hosts, while dynamic sub-consensus diversity reveals processes of genetic drift and weak purifying selection. We further identify a notable variant at amino acid position 655 in Spike (H655Y), which was previously shown to confer escape from human monoclonal antibodies. This variant arises rapidly and persists at intermediate frequencies in index cats. It also becomes fixed following transmission in two of three pairs. These dynamics suggest this site may be under positive selection in this system and illustrate how a variant can quickly arise and become fixed in parallel across multiple transmission pairs. Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in cats involved a narrow bottleneck, with new infections founded by fewer than ten viruses. In RNA virus evolution, stochastic processes like narrow transmission bottlenecks and genetic drift typically act to constrain the overall pace of adaptive evolution. Our data suggest that here, positive selection in index cats followed by a narrow transmission bottleneck may have instead accelerated the fixation of S H655Y, a potentially beneficial SARS-CoV-2 variant. Overall, our study suggests species- and context-specific adaptations are likely to continue to emerge. This underscores the importance of continued genomic surveillance for new SARS-CoV-2 variants as well as heightened scrutiny for signatures of SARS-CoV-2 positive selection in humans and mammalian model systems.

Potentially adaptive SARS-CoV-2 mutations discovered with novel spatiotemporal and explainable AI models.

BACKGROUND: A mechanistic understanding of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and diligent tracking of ongoing mutagenesis are of key importance to plan robust strategies for confining its transmission. Large numbers of available sequences and their dates of transmission provide an unprecedented opportunity to analyze evolutionary adaptation in novel ways. Addition of high-resolution structural information can reveal the functional basis of these processes at the molecular level. Integrated systems biology-directed analyses of these data layers afford valuable insights to build a global understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: Here we identify globally distributed haplotypes from 15,789 SARS-CoV-2 genomes and model their success based on their duration, dispersal, and frequency in the host population. Our models identify mutations that are likely compensatory adaptive changes that allowed for rapid expansion of the virus. Functional predictions from structural analyses indicate that, contrary to previous reports, the Asp614Gly mutation in the spike glycoprotein (S) likely reduced transmission and the subsequent Pro323Leu mutation in the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase led to the precipitous spread of the virus. Our model also suggests that two mutations in the nsp13 helicase allowed for the adaptation of the virus to the Pacific Northwest of the USA. Finally, our explainable artificial intelligence algorithm identified a mutational hotspot in the sequence of S that also displays a signature of positive selection and may have implications for tissue or cell-specific expression of the virus. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide valuable insights for the development of drugs and surveillance strategies to combat the current and future pandemics.

Key genetic elements, single and in clusters, underlying geographically dependent SARS-CoV-2 genetic adaptation and their impact on binding affinity for drugs and immune control.

OBJECTIVES: To define key genetic elements, single or in clusters, underlying SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2) evolutionary diversification across continents, and their impact on drug-binding affinity and viral antigenicity. METHODS: A total of 12 150 SARS-CoV-2 sequences (publicly available) from 69 countries were analysed. Mutational clusters were assessed by hierarchical clustering. Structure-based virtual screening (SBVS) was used to select the best inhibitors of 3-chymotrypsin-like protease (3CL-Pr) and RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) among the FDA-approved drugs and to evaluate the impact of mutations on binding affinity of these drugs. The impact of mutations on epitope recognition was predicted following Grifoni et al. (Cell Host Microbe 2020. 27: 671-80.). RESULTS: Thirty-five key mutations were identified (prevalence: ≥0.5%), residing in different viral proteins. Sixteen out of 35 formed tight clusters involving multiple SARS-CoV-2 proteins, highlighting intergenic co-evolution. Some clusters (including D614GSpike + P323LRdRp + R203KN + G204RN) occurred in all continents, while others showed a geographically restricted circulation (T1198KPL-Pr + P13LN + A97VRdRp in Asia, L84SORF-8 + S197LN in Europe, Y541CHel + H504CHel + L84SORF-8 in America and Oceania). SBVS identified 20 best RdRp inhibitors and 21 best 3CL-Pr inhibitors belonging to different drug classes. Notably, mutations in RdRp or 3CL-Pr modulate, positively or negatively, the binding affinity of these drugs. Among them, P323LRdRp (prevalence: 61.9%) reduced the binding affinity of specific compounds including remdesivir while it increased the binding affinity of the purine analogues penciclovir and tenofovir, suggesting potential hypersusceptibility. Finally, specific mutations (including Y541CHel + H504CHel) strongly hampered recognition of Class I/II epitopes, while D614GSpike profoundly altered the structural stability of a recently identified B cell epitope target of neutralizing antibodies (amino acids 592-620). CONCLUSIONS: Key genetic elements reflect geographically dependent SARS-CoV-2 genetic adaptation, and may play a potential role in modulating drug susceptibility and hampering viral antigenicity. Thus, a close monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 mutational patterns is crucial to ensure the effectiveness of treatments and vaccines worldwide.

The receptor binding domain of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein is the result of an ancestral recombination between the bat-CoV RaTG13 and the pangolin-CoV MP789.

OBJECTIVE: In December 2019 a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) that is causing the current COVID-19 pandemic was identified in Wuhan, China. Many questions have been raised about its origin and adaptation to humans. In the present work we performed a genetic analysis of the Spike glycoprotein (S) of SARS-CoV-2 and other related coronaviruses (CoVs) isolated from different hosts in order to trace the evolutionary history of this protein and the adaptation of SARS-CoV-2 to humans. RESULTS: Based on the sequence analysis of the S gene, we suggest that the origin of SARS-CoV-2 is the result of recombination events between bat and pangolin CoVs. The hybrid SARS-CoV-2 ancestor jumped to humans and has been maintained by natural selection. Although the S protein of RaTG13 bat CoV has a high nucleotide identity with the S protein of SARS-CoV-2, the phylogenetic tree and the haplotype network suggest a non-direct parental relationship between these CoVs. Moreover, it is likely that the basic function of the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of S protein was acquired by the SARS-CoV-2 from the MP789 pangolin CoV by recombination and it has been highly conserved.

Analysis of codon usage of severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its adaptability in dog.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is recognized as one of the life-threatening viruses causing the most destructive pandemic in this century. The genesis of this virus is still unknown. To elucidate its molecular evolution and regulation of gene expression, the knowledge of codon usage is a pre-requisite. In this study, an attempt was made to document the genome-wide codon usage profile and the various factors influencing the codon usage patterns of SARS-CoV-2 in human and dog. The SARS-CoV-2 genome showed relative abundance of A and U nucleotides and relative synonymous codon usage analysis revealed that the preferred synonymous codons mostly end with A/U. The analysis of ENc-GC3s, Neutrality and Parity rule 2 plots indicated that natural selection and other undefined factors dominate the overall codon usage bias in SARS-CoV-2 whereas the impact of mutation pressure is comparatively minor. The codon adaptation index and relative codon deoptimization index of SARS-CoV-2 deciphered that human is more favoured host for adaptation compared to dog. These results enhance our understanding of the factors involved in evolution of the novel human SARS-CoV-2 and its adaptability in dog.

SARS-coronavirus-2 replication in Vero E6 cells: replication kinetics, rapid adaptation and cytopathology.

The sudden emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) at the end of 2019 from the Chinese province of Hubei and its subsequent pandemic spread highlight the importance of understanding the full molecular details of coronavirus infection and pathogenesis. Here, we compared a variety of replication features of SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV and analysed the cytopathology caused by the two closely related viruses in the commonly used Vero E6 cell line. Compared to SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2 generated higher levels of intracellular viral RNA, but strikingly about 50-fold less infectious viral progeny was recovered from the culture medium. Immunofluorescence microscopy of SARS-CoV-2-infected cells established extensive cross-reactivity of antisera previously raised against a variety of non-structural proteins, membrane and nucleocapsid protein of SARS-CoV. Electron microscopy revealed that the ultrastructural changes induced by the two SARS viruses are very similar and occur within comparable time frames after infection. Furthermore, we determined that the sensitivity of the two viruses to three established inhibitors of coronavirus replication (remdesivir, alisporivir and chloroquine) is very similar, but that SARS-CoV-2 infection was substantially more sensitive to pre-treatment of cells with pegylated interferon alpha. An important difference between the two viruses is the fact that - upon passaging in Vero E6 cells - SARS-CoV-2 apparently is under strong selection pressure to acquire adaptive mutations in its spike protein gene. These mutations change or delete a putative furin-like cleavage site in the region connecting the S1 and S2 domains and result in a very prominent phenotypic change in plaque assays.

On the evolutionary epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2.

There is no doubt that the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 that causes COVID-19 is mutating and thus has the potential to adapt during the current pandemic. Whether this evolution will lead to changes in the transmission, the duration, or the severity of the disease is not clear. This has led to considerable scientific and media debate, from raising alarms about evolutionary change to dismissing it. Here we review what little is currently known about the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and extend existing evolutionary theory to consider how selection might be acting upon the virus during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although there is currently no definitive evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is undergoing further adaptation, continued evidence-based analysis of evolutionary change is important so that public health measures can be adjusted in response to substantive changes in the infectivity or severity of COVID-19.